Predicting and Assessing Natural Capital and Ecosystem Services through an Integrated Social-Ecological Systems Approach (PANCES)
Year: 2015 -2021

This research project (PANCES) predicts and assesses future natural capital and ecosystem services (nature's benefits to people) and their natural and social-economic values by building an integrated model of social - ecological systems. Through the presentation of several scenarios, the project aim to demonstrate the ideal form of a society in harmony with nature. The overall aim was to explore ways to strengthen interface between science and policy through research and contribute towards domestic and international biodiversity policy and international frameworks such as IPBES.

The six-year project involved 30 research institutes and more than 100 researchers in Japan working together with their full-scale efforts. More specifically, PANCES has the following objectives:

• Develop an integrated assessment model of social‐ecological systems to predict and assess natural and socio‐economic values of natural capital and ecosystem services under different  future scenarios of socio‐economic conditions and policy options;
• Design a new conceptual framework to promote multilevel governance of natural capital to maintain and improve “inclusive wellbeing”;
• Demonstrate the integrated assessment model at both national and local scales in Japan, an examine effectiveness and applicability to other areas in Japan and beyond.

For more information see: http://pances.net/eng/index.html

Abandonment and rebound: Societal views on landscape- and land-use change and their impacts on water and soils (ABRESO) BELMONT FORUM
Year: 2021-2024

The overarching goal of ABRESO is to develop a global transdisciplinary platform for understanding the impacts of land abandonment on sustainability of soil and water resources. Land abandonment and subsequent land use or land cover change can have profound implications for water resources, as the changing fabric of the Critical Zone (CZ) dictates changes in infiltration, runoff, and the delivery of sediment and nitrogen to groundwater and surface waters. The specific goals of the project, each aligned with a research question, are to 1) describe social and natural forcing functions that drive land abandonment and subsequent land use change; 2) quantify impacts on water quality due to this abandonment; 3) identify gaps in understanding of actual impacts and those perceived by stakeholders such that stakeholder reactions to land use change can be better understood and modeled; and 4) use a modeling framework to assess sustainability of various land use and land abandonment scenarios in the context of the Intergovernmental Science-Policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services (IPBES).

The goal of this CRA is to produce the necessary knowledge and propose solutions to maintain well-functioning soils and groundwater systems in the Critical Zone1, or rehabilitate them where degraded, through:

1. Better understanding of the long- and shorter-time dynamics and functions of soils and groundwater, impacts from societal (including economics) decisions, integrative management practices, public policies, and how these systems have been transformed; and,
2. Providing avenues, pathways, and narratives toward transformation of management practices of the whole soil and groundwater systems through a fundamental shift of socio-economic actors’ practices and related decisions making processes.

Here is the video to give brief background of the project: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QcPGeJLoykI
For more information see project website: https://sites.psu.edu/abreso/

Food Security Impacts of Industrial Crop Expansion in Sub-Sahara Africa (FICESSA)
Year: 2014 -2017

FICESSA is a 3-year interdisciplinary project that aims to provide clear empirical evidence of how industrial crops compete for land with food crops in Sub-Saharan Africa, and the mechanisms through which this competition can affect food security, whether in a positive or a negative way. The project study food security outcomes across different industrial crops (sugarcane, jatropha, cotton, tobacco), modes of productions (large plantations, smallholders, outgrowers), spatial (local, national, regional) and temporal scales (historical analysis, scenario modeling) using various analytical approaches.

The project undertake studies at multiple spatial scales using various analytical tools to study past dynamics and explore future scenarios. FICESSA includes comprehensive case studies of different operational industrial crop projects in Ghana, Malawi, Mozambique and Swaziland. FICESSA will also undertake scoping surveys in Burkina Faso, Guinea and Ethiopia that focus on institutional issues related to industrial crop production and its linkages with food security.

The project consists of 8 interlinked work-packages:

• WP1: Local food security outcomes of industrial crop expansion
• WP2: Institutional landscape for industrial crops
• WP3: Species Distribution Modeling (SDM)
• WP4: Systems-based modeling
• WP5: Macroeconomic modeling (Computable General Equilibrium modeling, CGE)
• WP6: Synthesis of modeling outputs
• WP7: Recommendations to end-users and dissemination of results
• WP8: Project management

For more information see: https://supportoffice.jp/ficessa/

Biodiversity and Ecosystem Service Scenarios Network (ScenNet)
Year: 2015-2016

This collaborative research project aims to strengthen national and international ties between researchers working on future scenarios of biodiversity and ecosystem services, i.e. the various benefits that people obtain from ecosystems. ScenNet focuses on networking and capacity building in all eight countries participating in this network through:

• international workshops,
• development of national networks,
• a large international conference on biodiversity and ecosystem service scenarios held in 2016,
• a web-based networking tool.

The objective of this project is to stimulate the formation of international networks of scientists and the advancement of the inter- and trans-disciplinary methodologies of scenario-building needed to enhance usefulness of biodiversity scenarios in decision-making.

By working together, it is expected that this project will substantially contribute to the newly initiated Intergovernmental Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services (IPBES) and and reinforce the recently launched interdisciplinary global change program, Future Earth. Strong ties and coherence with these are ensured through significant participation of researchers involved in both IPBES and Future Earth.

Plausible alternative futures of island mangroves in the Asia-Pacific: Scenario-based analysis and quantification of mangrove ecosystem services in coastal hazard mitigation and climate change adaptation
Year: 2018-2022

Mangrove ecosystem services are increasingly being recognized as pivotal to build nature-based resistance to climate change and hydro-meteorological hazards in coastal areas. Yet, a dearth of reliable quantitative information on the future extent and availability of such services serve as a major obstacle for optimum landscape planning, particularly in remote islands. To address future uncertainties in mangrove ecosystem services, the project aims to develop a scenario-based quantitative assessment of mangrove ecosystem services for evidence-led decision-making and establishing a strong science-policy interface for future land use planning. 

The main goal of this project is to develop spatially explicit, exploratory scenarios (2050) for mangroves and assess future tradeoffs in vital mangrove ecosystem services under alternative climate and development pathways (e.g., with ‘no’, ‘moderate’ and ‘strong’ policy intervention). It will specifically focus on five case study sites, namely (1) North Andaman Islands and estuarine island mangroves from Odisha (India) (2) Ishigaki Islands (Japan) (3) Oriental Mindoro (The Philippines) (4) Tamsui River Estuary, Taiwan and (5) Viti Levu island of Fiji. By developing future scenarios, the project proponents will make quantitative, spatiotemporal evaluation of vital mangrove ecosystem services, with respect to climate change and hazard mitigation (e.g. carbon sequestration, coastal vulnerability, sediment, and nutrient retention) through appropriate biophysical models.